As the Catholic Church prepares for the next papal conclave following Pope Francis’ anticipated resignation or eventual passing, attention has turned to a diverse field of cardinal-electors. With 133 eligible voting cardinals—approximately 80% appointed by Francis himself—the next Pope is likely to reflect, in some form, the legacy of the current pontiff. But which direction that legacy takes—continuity or reform, pastoral emphasis or doctrinal clarity—remains uncertain.
That smoke from the Sistine Chapel is first expected to be seen around 1 to 2 p.m. EST May 7.
If voting begins on the afternoon of the first day, there will be only one ballot. On subsequent days, two ballots are held in the morning and two in the afternoon. After the votes are counted, all ballots are burned. If the ballot was inconclusive, a chimney positioned over the Sistine Chapel emits black smoke. If a Pope is elected, white smoke will billow out of the chimney.
The College of Cardinals finds itself at a crossroads, and several leading figures have emerged as potential successors. Each candidate represents a different geographical, theological, and pastoral vision for the Church’s future.
As the Vatican website explains, to validly elect a new Pope, a two-thirds majority of the electors present is required. If the total number of electors is not evenly divisible by three, an additional vote is necessary.
1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – The Vatican Insider
Position: Secretary of State of the Holy See
Strengths: Deep diplomatic experience, continuity candidate, well-regarded administrator
Weaknesses: Perceived as too “curial,” tied to internal Vatican financial controversies
As the Vatican’s chief diplomat since 2013, Cardinal Parolin is a consummate insider who has shaped the Holy See’s foreign policy across two pontificates. He is fluent in several languages, a key negotiator in Church relations with China and Vietnam, and a stabilizing presence in the Curia. However, critics note his links to opaque Vatican finances—especially during the London property scandal—though he has not been personally implicated.
He represents a “safe” choice for cardinals seeking continuity with a pragmatic and institutionally competent hand, without the charismatic outreach of Pope Francis.
2. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – The Francis Reformer
Position: Archbishop of Bologna; President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
Strengths: Pastoral charisma, peace negotiator, bridges progressives and moderates
Weaknesses: Lack of curial experience, concerns from conservatives over pastoral liberalism
A favorite among progressives, Cardinal Zuppi embodies the social justice and “field hospital” vision championed by Pope Francis. Known for mediating peace in Mozambique in the 1990s, his style mirrors that of the early Bergoglio papacy—pastoral, humble, and deeply concerned with migrants, the poor, and inclusivity.
Zuppi’s openness to LGBTQ Catholics and support for ecumenical dialogue make him admired by reform-minded clergy, but potentially divisive among traditionalists. He has also gained influence in Italy as head of the bishops’ conference, positioning him as a serious contender.
3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – The Evangelist of Asia
Position: Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization; former Archbishop of Manila
Strengths: Global appeal, close to Francis, expert communicator
Weaknesses: Perceived administrative weakness, may be too “Francis II” for some cardinals
Often called “the Asian Francis,” Cardinal Tagle is one of the Church’s most eloquent speakers and an ardent advocate of missionary evangelization. His humility and emotional preaching have drawn comparisons to Pope John Paul II, and his Filipino heritage would mark a significant turn toward Asia, home to some of the fastest-growing Catholic communities.
Though widely beloved, his transition to the Roman Curia has been less visible. Some cardinals question whether he has the gravitas and managerial skill to handle Vatican bureaucracy and global governance.
4. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo) – The Voice of the Global South
Position: Archbishop of Kinshasa
Strengths: Moral clarity, defender of justice and environment, symbol of African Catholicism
Weaknesses: Limited global name recognition, considered “too political” by some
A Capuchin friar turned archbishop, Cardinal Ambongo is a powerful voice for the African Church. He has been outspoken on climate change, political corruption, and colonial exploitation—issues he connects to the Church’s call for moral leadership. Fluent in several languages, he is respected by peers in the Global South and aligns with Francis on social justice priorities.
His election would reflect the demographic shift of Catholicism toward Africa and could galvanize the Church’s youth and vitality in that region. However, his sharp political critiques have made him polarizing in Rome.
5. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary) – The Conservative Scholar
Position: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest; former head of the Council of European Bishops
Strengths: Theological authority, doctrinal clarity, compromise candidate
Weaknesses: Lacks charisma, conservative profile may clash with Francis legacy
Often cited as a potential compromise candidate, Erdő is a Latin Rite traditionalist with scholarly gravitas. He has criticized synodal ambiguity and LGBTQ blessings, reflecting a desire among some cardinals to recalibrate after Francis. He is doctrinally firm but not harsh, and his quiet demeanor has earned him respect from both progressive and conservative clerics.
His central European base could symbolize a return to post-Benedict orthodoxy, though not a total repudiation of Francis’ reforms.
6. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – The Synodal Pioneer
Position: Archbishop of Luxembourg; General Relator for the Synod on Synodality
Strengths: Thought leader of the Synod, multilingual, pro-European
Weaknesses: Controversial statements on doctrine, limited popularity in Africa/Asia
As the theological mind behind the Synod on Synodality, Hollerich is deeply embedded in Francis’ vision of a listening Church. He has floated ideas such as revisiting the Church’s teachings on sexuality, which have sparked both acclaim and alarm. While European media see him as a modernizer, more conservative blocs find his proposals destabilizing.
He would be the most radical shift if elected—likely signaling a transformative papacy for a Church ready to reexamine its doctrinal formulations.
Wildcard Candidates:
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Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria): Elder statesman and respected theologian, though considered too old now (80).
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Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea): Represents a sharp return to liturgical and doctrinal conservatism; once seen as a standard bearer for traditionalists, but likely too divisive.
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Cardinal Sean O’Malley (USA): Respected for abuse reform work, but age and health may rule him out.
The Balance of Legacy and Future
The next conclave will not simply choose a man—it will choose a mission. Will the Church double down on the pastoral and decentralized approach of Pope Francis, or will it pivot toward a doctrinal reaffirmation? Will it elect a pope from the Global South or return to a European seat? Will it pick a bridge-builder or a bold reformer?
While Parolin, Zuppi, Tagle, and Ambongo are frontrunners in different respects, the conclave is famous for surprises. As The New York Times aptly summarized, the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel as “princes,” but the one who emerges pope often defies prediction.
The world will soon see not just who leads the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics—but what kind of Church he hopes to shape.